UFC 195 | Lawler Vs Condit | Miocic Vs Arlovski
#ufc 195# With a new year come new beginnings and a new opportunity for me to show that I actually have some semblance of skill when it comes to predicting how fights will play out in the Octagon.Last year, my partner in crime here, Patrick Cwiklinski, kicked my ass in our year-long prediction challenge. I don’t know this for sure since I stopped really keeping track when I got down by 10 and started traveling a little more, but it sure felt like he was coming out ahead more often than naught and that sucked.
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UFC 195
Lawler Vs Condit
Miocic Vs Arlovski
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So here we are, kicking off 2016 with the first of many editions of the Punch Drunk Predictions and with Patrick responsible for keeping track of the results.
We kick things off with a “better than you think” event in Las Vegas headlined by a welterweight title fight and featuring some pivotal divisional battles and intriguing prospects.
Settle in, enjoy and here’s to a big year!
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions.
Robbie Lawler vs. Carlos Condit
Pat: Let’s be clear on one thing: this fight has the potential to match (and perhaps exceed) the utter violence we witnessed at UFC 189 when Lawler defended his welterweight title against Canadian stone-faced killer Rory MacDonald.
For anyone who questions whether or not Condit is worthy of a title shot at this point in his career – sit down and shut up. His iffy injury loss to Tyron Woodley back at UFC 171 had some marking the beginning of a downfall, which is downright ridiculous if you ask me. Fight of the Night after Fight of the Night, Condit always brings his furious brand of striking to the table and remains one of the top contenders at 170-pounds even on a bad day.
To call Lawler’s run as a UFC champion transformative doesn’t do his return to glory enough justice. What he’s done in his second run with the UFC is something of a spectacle and the scariest part is that at 33, he still seems to be getting better. At UFC 189, we saw Lawler go toe-to-toe with MacDonald in what was many people’s choice, myself included, for Fight of the Year. It was the kind of special performance only a true champion could thrive in and Lawler proved that in spades.
Man, this is an exciting match-up. I can see where both guys could take this fight and while I do believe Condit will find some success from the outside utilizing his reach advantage early, my belief is Lawler will close the distance somewhere in the second or third round. Look for a bloody mess with both fighters throwing some bombs throughout, but I don’t think we’re going to see another title change to kick off 2016.
Prediction: Robbie Lawler by Unanimous Decision
ESK: My thoughts on this fight echo a lot of what Patrick has already said, so I’ll skip the build-up and get to breaking it down.
Having watched Lawler-MacDonald from press row, I’m leaning Condit here. There where more points in that fight where MacDonald had Lawler on the ropes, but the Canadian’s penchant for sticking in the pocket and taking return fire became his downfall. I don’t think Condit makes those same mistakes.
Like he did against Nick Diaz, I see Condit working a stick-and-move strategy early, staying away from Lawler’s power while stepping in to land shots of his own. There will be moments where the two bite down on their gum shields and trade, but a tactical, patient approach from Condit leads to “The Natural Born Killer” finishing late and claiming the one welterweight belt that has eluded him so far.
Prediction: Carlos Condit by TKO, Round 4
Stipe Miocic vs. Andrei Arlovski
Pat: Especially with Alistair Overeem’s future as a UFC heavyweight still up in the air, it’s essentially a guarantee Miocic or Arlovski will get the next crack at either Fabricio Werdum or Cain Velasquez after their rematch at UFC 196.
Remember Arlovski’s lackluster Octagon return against Brendan Schaub at UFC 174? Doesn’t that seem like years ago? Since coming out of the gate a little flat in his UFC return, “The Pit Bull” has finished the likes of Antonio Silva and Travis Browne in devastating fashion. Yes, his recent performance against Frank Mir wasn’t all that awe-inspiring, but the fact a former heavyweight champion is open to taking on all challengers before a title shot also has to count for something.
Miocic is most certainly deserving of his elite status in the heavyweight division and his wins over the likes of Mark Hunt and Roy Nelson are indicative of that. A strong overall fighter with a durable chin and great movement for his size, the 33-year-old Ohio native isn’t an easy fight for any big guy trying to make their way to a fight for the strap.
I can see Miocic coming in with a fuller gas tank and taking this fight by an ugly, sluggish decision — but that’s not a fun way to kick off 2016, is it? Look for a vintage Arlovski performance with the big Belarusian knocking his opponent’s block off in devastating fashion.
Prediction: Andrei Arlovski by TKO, Round 1
ESK: I don’t know how you can watch Arlovski’s tepid battle with Mir and Miocic’s drubbing of Mark Hunt and think the Belarusian is going to come out and blister the big man from Cleveland.
Miocic hasn’t been finished in the first in his career and he’s become a much more strategic fighter since the days of winging loopy shots with Stefan Struve and getting put on the canvas. Many people, myself included, believe he out-dulled Junior dos Santos 13 months ago and he showed his smarts opposite Hunt, taking his power away from him by putting him on the canvas and I think we see more of the same here.
Arlovski’s primary path to victory is a knockout, so don’t be surprised if Miocic looks to make this a wrestling match, getting inside, pressing for takedowns and working from top position. It won’t be the barnburner some are expecting or hoping for, but it’s the right move for a fighter hoping to earn a title shot to kick off 2016.
Prediction: Stipe Miocic by Unanimous Decision
Albert Tumenov vs. Lorenz Larkin
Pat: Tumenov has continually impressed me in his young UFC career. The 24-year-old Russian now owns three first-round finishes inside the Octagon and seems to have found his form after a split decision loss to Illdemar Alcantara in his promotional debut.
You want to talk career resurgence? How good has Larkin looked at welterweight? Two straight TKO finishes at 170-pounds, “The Monsoon” looks like he’s certainly made the right decision by moving down in weight where he’s retained his power, but also gained some quickness in the process.
This is a very good fight with two stand-up specialists going head-to-head. Larkin comes in with more experience fighting top competition, but Tumenov is younger and a little fresher overall coming in. As much as I like what Larkin has done at welterweight, I think he takes a step back here.
Prediction: Albert Tumenov by TKO, Round 2
ESK: Love this fight as a test for Tumenov, who I think has elite upside, but needs to show it with continued movement up the welterweight ladder.
For Larkin to win, he needs to dart in and out, landing and avoiding on the exit and I just can’t see Tumenov allowing him to execute like that over the course of 15 minutes. The more likely scenario to me is Tumenov walking down and cutting off Larkin along the cage before clipping him with counters and offering nasty kicks up high. As good as Larkin has looked at welterweight, he’s never been great when made to move backwards and Tumenov will press the action to ensure that’s his only option.
Prediction: Albert Tumenov by TKO, Round 2
Diego Brandao vs. Brian Ortega
Pat: Brandao has looked like the Brandao of old lately with vicious TKO finishes of Katsunori Kikuno and Jimy Hettes. Losses to UFC featherweight champion Conor McGregor and current UFC lightweight Dustin Poirier are nothing to be ashamed of and I still think Brandao has more to offer at 28.
Ortega is definitely not an easy out at featherweight and we’ve already seen him showcase both his impressive stand-up and ground games in two UFC outings. He’s also a fighter I’m pretty high on as a featherweight, so I’m not picking against him for the time being.
Prediction: Brian Ortega by Submission, Round 2
ESK: This is another fight I’m really keen to see because I think Brandao has shown some improved maturity and professionalism in his last two fights, which has allowed him to start living up to the immense potential he flashed coming off Season 14 of The Ultimate Fighter. Remember, this is a dude that tapped Dennis Bermudez in slick fashion to win the show and “The Menace” has since morphed into a Top 15 featherweight, so to me, Brandao has serious late bloomer/finally figuring it out upside.
Ortega showed a strong resolve in his win over Thiago Tavares, never backing off the attack despite the Brazilian defending and countering at every turn. It resulted in the Torrence, California resident collecting a third-round stoppage win and climbing the featherweight prospect charts, but I’m still not 100 percent sold on where he fits. That’s why I think this is an important fight for him.
This is a fight Brandao can certainly win with a clean shot or keeping Ortega on his back while avoiding sweeps and sub attempts, but I think Ortega will find a way to pull it out. The one thing the Brazilian hasn’t figured out yet is how to pace himself, while the American already showed he can go hard for three rounds. This could end up being Fight of the Night and should end up with Ortega getting his hand raised.
Prediction: Brian Ortega by Unanimous Decision
Abel Trujillo vs. Tony Sims
Pat: If there’s anything we’ve learned about Trujillo in his last two fights, it’s this: buddy needs to work on his ground defence. Luckily for him, Sims isn’t much of a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, so if this thing stays standing like I have a feeling it will — I like Trujillo here.
Prediction: Abel Trujillo by TKO, Round 2
ESK: Patrick is being way too simplistic in his breakdown here; no offense.
While Sims isn’t a black belt, this is anything but a “Sims can’t take him down, so Trujillo wins” kind of fight. Sims has knockout power and a good enough wrestling base that he’ll make Trujillo work and as long as he doesn’t get clipped in the first, that should mean a tiring, slower opponent after that because Trujillo goes as hard as he can for as long as he can and then hits a wall.
The question is whether Sims can avoid that big shot and I think he can. He made Olivier Aubin-Mercier work for everything he got in Saskatoon, starting to come on as OAM tired down the stretch, and I think we see a repeat here. As Trujillo fades, Sims presses forward and ultimately earns the victory.
Prediction: Tony Sims by Split Decision
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